NRF Expects Sales to Grow Between 4 Percent and 6 Percent This Year
While U.S. major seaports experienced a downturn in arriving goods for the first quarter of 2023, the National Retail Federation (NRF)recently expressed a positive projection for 2023 retail sales and according to their economists, stated that a recession is unlikely.
On March 29, 2023, the NFR released its annual forecast, announcing that retail sales are expected to grow between 4% and 6% in 2023. This translates into $5.13 trillion to $5.23 trillion this year. While the expected growth will be moderate, it is still a positive increase.
On March 23, 2023, the NRF of Retailers held their third annual State of Retail and the Consumer meeting where retail executives from major brands, prominent economists, and consumer experts discussed the health of American consumers and the retail industry. They concluded that 2023 will yield an above the pre-pandemic average annual retail sales growth rate of 3.6%.
“In just the last three years, the retail industry has experienced growth that would normally take almost a decade by pre-pandemic standards,” said Matthew Shay, president and chief executive officer of NRF. “While we expect growth to moderate in the year ahead, it will remain positive as retail sales stabilize to more historical levels. Retailers are prepared to serve consumers in the current economic environment by offering a range of products at affordable prices with great shopping experiences.”
Further statements indicated, while many consumers continue to use the conveniences offered by online shipping, much of that growth is driven by multichannel sales, where the physical store still plays a key part in the fulfillment process. As the role of brick-and-mortar stores has evolved in recent years, they still are the primary point of purchase for consumers, accounting for approximately 70% of total retail sales.
“While it is still too early to know the full effects of the banking industry turmoil, consumer spending is looking quite good for 2023,” and Kleinhenz further said, “we expect consumers to maintain spending at a softer and likely uneven pace is projected for the balance of the year.”
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